---
artifact: market-sizing
version: "1.0"
created: <YYYY-MM-DD>
status: draft
---

# Market Sizing: [Product / Market]

## Executive Summary
<!-- 3-5 sentences: what is being sized, headline TAM/SAM/SOM range with confidence labels, the single most important assumption -->

[Summary]

## Market Definition
<!-- Be precise. State exactly what is included and excluded. -->

- **Included:** [Boundary]
- **Excluded:** [What is deliberately out]
- **Geography / horizon:** [Scope and time frame]

## Top-Down Sizing

| Layer | Number | Method | Source / Assumption | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | $[X] | [Industry report] | [Source, page] | [High/Medium/Low] |
| SAM | $[X] | [Filter on TAM] | [Filter logic] | [Medium] |
| SOM | $[X] | [Market-share assumption] | [% of SAM in N years] | [Medium/Low] |

## Bottom-Up Sizing
<!-- Build from unit economics. If bottom-up data is unavailable, say so; do not fabricate counts. -->

| Segment | # Customers | Revenue / Customer | Sub-total | Method | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| [Segment A] | [X] | $[Y] | $[X*Y] | Bottom-up | [Source / Assumption] |

## Multi-Framework Synthesis
<!-- Convergence raises confidence; divergence is a finding to explain, not average away -->

- **Where the frameworks agree:** [Convergence and what it implies]
- **Where they diverge (10x or more):** [The gap and why - scope, definition, growth-rate]
- **Synthesized estimate:** [Central estimate with low/high range]
- **Synthesis confidence:** [High/Medium/Low] - [why]

## Sensitivity Analysis

| Assumption varied | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Market growth rate] | [X%] (TAM = $[X]) | [Y%] (TAM = $[Y]) | [Z%] (TAM = $[Z]) |
| [Market share captured] | [1%] (SOM = $[A]) | [5%] (SOM = $[B]) | [10%] (SOM = $[C]) |

## Key Assumptions

| Assumption | Source / Rationale | Confidence | What changes if wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Assumption] | [Source] | [High/Medium/Low] | [Sensitivity link] |

## Confidence and Limitations

- **Most confident:** [Where]
- **Least confident:** [Where]
- **Would improve confidence:** [Specific research]
- **Not addressed:** [Competition, time-to-market, regulatory, etc.]

## Next Steps

- [Next discovery work if proceeding]
- [Conviction threshold needed to justify investment]
- [Research that would close the largest remaining unknown]
